Edition 2 Volume 1 - July 17, 2003
The roadmap and the future of the Quartet
• Coexisting peacefully with the US -
an interview withAndrey Vdovin
We are not jealous over Bush's attributing the roadmap to the US.
• The Quartet has no future -
byAlon Liel
In Israel there is a broad popular sense that Europe hates us.
• The Quartet is disappearing -
an interview withSaeb Erekat
The best support system is to have the Quartet monitor implementation.
• President Bush and the roadmap -
byWilliam J. Burns
With active US engagement, the parties can turn a new page in their relations and make a reality of President Bush's powerful vision.
Coexisting peacefully with the US
an interview with Andrey Vdovin BI: Who created the Quartet and the roadmap?
Vdovin: The Quartet as such has no specific birth date. Everyone can consider that he first invited other representatives to meet. For example, Michael Bogdanov, then-Russian ambassador to Israel, invited Americans, Europeans and others to meet in his residence around June 2001.
Nobody knows exactly who created the roadmap. The roadmap is a collective creation, with everyone contributing. It's an example of how the international community can work to address the core issues of the Israel-Palestine conflict in a way appropriate to the Israel-Arab conflict in general.
BI: What do you believe the Quartet has accomplished?
Vdovin: The Quartet accomplished one main important thing: possible competition between the main international actors ceased and cooperation emerged. This prevented many misunderstandings and complications.
Secondly, it created a framework for a joint effort to address the terrible situation brought about by the terrorism and violence and the non-settlement of the conflict. And third, it managed to provide this roadmap, which is not ideal and perhaps has many lacunae, but still remains a source of hope and the "only game in town."
BI: Has United States President George W. Bush "hijacked" the roadmap from the rest of the Quartet?
Vdovin: I would not say so. The American role is essential and Bush's vision of the two state solution was an important step forward; we needed an American commitment to this idea. But since then we have worked together. We are not jealous over Bush's attributing the roadmap to the US and [Israeli Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon crediting only the US. It's impossible to have a monopoly over a Middle East settlement. Unilateral efforts alone cannot succeed.
BI: So the entire Quartet's involvement in implementing the roadmap is crucial to success.
Vdovin: Again, we have no jealousy regarding the [current largely] American effort; on the contrary we welcome it. We think there should not be a monopoly, but a joint effort. We support a Quartet--rather than solely American--monitoring mechanism. But if it begins with an American team we can welcome that, provided there is an understanding that it be expanded. We have to be pragmatic and realistic to support what can be done at this stage.
BI: Can the roadmap be expanded to include Syria and Lebanon?
Vdovin: We think that neither Syria nor Lebanon should be excluded from the current process. The roadmap says something brief about that in phases II and III. It would be useful to discuss extending the roadmap to the Syrian and Lebanese tracks. This could break the freeze of the current diplomatic impasse between Israel, Syria and Lebanon.
BI: So what is the future of the Quartet?
Vdovin: I think the Quartet has a life beyond the current phase of the roadmap. We don't know how happily the current phase will work out. There may be complications, for which we will need the roadmap. This experience of the Quartet could also be applied to other problems in this and even other regions. It's a flexible formula that managed to reduce international competition and promote a joint effort.-Published 17/07/03©bitterlemons-international.org
Ambassador Andrey Vdovin is Russian special envoy for the Middle East peace process.
The Quartet has no future
by Alon LielI recently attended a prestigious and private event in Jerusalem where one of Israel's most important historians was lecturing on the country's relations with Europe. I found his message astounding. He asserted that Christian Europe would never be able to acquiesce in the fact that the Jewish people have their own sovereign country. The reason: the rejection of Jesus Christ by the Jewish people--something Europe could never forgive. The European claim, stated the important historian, is not against the Jews at the personal level, but rather against the sovereignty they have achieved as a people.
These words were not spoken in a vacuum. In Israel there is a broad popular sense that Europe hates us. It was recently revalidated when the government of Israel decided in effect to reject the Quartet, one of whose four pillars is European, as the implementer and monitor of the roadmap.
No doubt one of the more obvious current deviations from the route charted by the roadmap is the fact that it is the United States alone, and not the entire Quartet, that is administering the roadmap and has assigned itself to monitor performance. The Aqaba summit of June 4, 2003 was virtually the private summit of President George W. Bush; the monitoring team installed in Jerusalem is led by American Ambassador John Wolf. Europe and the United Nations play a negligible role, if at all.
The more observant among us certainly must have noticed that in his speeches the prime minister of Israel ebulliently thanks the US, and only the US, for its contribution to the peace process, while Palestinian Prime Minister Abbas repeatedly thanks Europe and the UN for "their important involvement." This is undoubtedly faithful testimony as to the real preference of both sides.
Despite the fact that the roadmap is the creation of the entire Quartet, the meager chance that Europe and the UN will supervise its implementation and monitor the sides' performance is amazingly similar to the low likelihood that they will be significantly involved in the rebuilding of Iraq. There are two reasons for this: In Israel there is a sense that the Palestinian intifada has been defeated, and in the US a sense of victory over Saddam Hussein's regime--despite the best efforts of the European opposition. These battlefield achievements have generated a sensation of security and superiority among the two actors, coupled with the aspiration to translate their military gains into achievements at the political-strategic level.
In the Arab world, in contrast, there is a sense of inferiority and self-deprecation. The upshot is that the American-Israeli axis has the upper hand in determining the parameters of an Israeli-Palestinian settlement.
There are of course additional reasons for the European-UN weakness as a mediator between Israel and the Palestinians:
- The US has recently succeeded in establishing itself as an honest broker between Israeli Prime Ministers Sharon and Abbas, in complete contrast to the situation that prevailed when Yasir Arafat was the sole Palestinian leader.
- Europe is split over several Middle East political issues, from the war in Iraq and its consequences to its position regarding Arafat. The decision by the current president of the EU, Italy's Prime Minister Sylvio Berlusconi, to ignore Arafat in the course of his recent visit to Israel, seriously divides Europe over an issue considered critical to the peace process.
- The UN for its part has not succeeded in improving its image in Israel despite Kofi Annan's successful tenure as secretary-general. Scars from the recent past, such as the obstacles placed in the path of the US in its effort to remove Saddam Hussein, the issue of Israel's MIAs in Lebanon, and the slanted behavior of the UN representative in the West Bank and Gaza, Terje Roed-Larsen, all exacerbated the situation.
Based on this analysis, we can conclude that the unique and special attempt to create a global umbrella for the Middle East peace process is on the verge of abject failure. If indeed there is going to be peace, it looks like it will once again be the United States, as in the case of the Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement, that leads the Israelis and the Palestinians to the altar.-Published 17/7/03©bitterlemons-international.org
Alon Liel was director general of the Israel Foreign Ministry under the Barak government. He now lectures at Tel Aviv University and the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya.
The Quartet is disappearing
an interview with Saeb ErekatBI: Do you feel that the Quartet is being cut out of the process of implementing the roadmap?
Erekat: Yes, I feel that the Quartet is disappearing. Once the Americans decided to take the driver's seat, the Quartet no longer existed. It was agreed upon previously that there would be four committees: the humanitarian committee, headed by the United Nations; the reform and reconstruction committee, headed by Europe; a security committee headed by the Americans; and a "special cases" committee to address settlement activities. Now, though, we do not see the implementation plan for the roadmap, nor do we see the Quartet, nor do we see the monitoring groups.
BI: So those groups were never even officially established?
Erekat: Even though this was put on paper by the Americans, they were never put into action.
BI: What do you think the effect is on the process?
Erekat: It has a serious effect and impact, because I don't think that the hudna or ceasefire [announced by Palestinian factions] can be sustained without the support system of the implementation of the roadmap and the monitors on the ground.
If [Israeli Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon thinks that he can go ahead with his reservations on the roadmap without full cessation of settlement activities, including natural growth; without lifting the closures and sieges and withdrawing his forces to the September 28 positions; or without reopening the offices in East Jerusalem, the hudna cannot be sustained. So it is really essential for the Americans to introduce the comprehensive implementation plan with the monitoring groups.
BI: Do you know if there have been efforts from either the Palestinians or the European Union or United Nations to try to return to that format?
Erekat: Prime Minister Abbas demands every time he is in touch with the Americans that they introduce the comprehensive package for implementation, with the monitors. But so far, we have only seen dictations from Israel, not negotiations. They are the party who decides who will be released from jail, where and when to withdraw, which closure to be lifted, which roadblock to be added. These are dictations--business as usual--not negotiations.
BI: Are there ways that the members of the Quartet, other than the United States, could be more influential in the roadmap process?
Erekat: Well, the roadmap is called the "Quartet roadmap." I cannot be more Catholic than the Pope, I cannot be more European than the Europeans, more Russian than the Russians, or more United Nations than Kofi Annan. We don't hear anything from them about the roadmap or how it is being implemented or where the monitors are.
BI: The Israeli government seems to have developed a heavy anti-Quartet position. What effect has this had on the process?
Erekat: To my knowledge, Israel has never even recognized the Quartet. One of the 14 reservations [Israel offered in officially accepting the roadmap] was that it did not want the Quartet. When Sharon received the roadmap on April 30, he only allowed [US Ambassador] Dan Kurtzer to come and see him, not the Quartet.
BI: What does this mean for the long-term?
Erekat: The best support system is to have the Quartet monitor implementation. Nobody wants the Europeans, the Russians or even the Americans to come and conduct negotiations for us or to make the concessions required from the Israelis and us. But we want a body to tell the world who's doing things and who's not doing things.
I believe that the Europeans have played a crucial role in the peace process. The more you have the Russians on board and the United Nations and Europeans and Arabs, then the better it is for the peace process.-Published 17/7/03©bitterlemons-international.org
Saeb Erekat has served as a principle negotiator for the Palestine Liberation Organization since the 1991 Madrid Conference. He recently resigned his cabinet post and continues as a member of the Palestinian Legislative Council.
President Bush and the roadmap
by William J. BurnsOne year ago, even as intifada-related violence raged at unprecedented levels, United States President George W. Bush announced a new diplomatic initiative designed to build the foundations for a just and sustainable peace. The president envisioned two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace, security, and dignity, fulfilling the national aspirations of their peoples. He called for new Palestinian leadership, and transformed, accountable, and democratic Palestinian institutions, which Palestinians deserve and are eminently capable of creating. He called for reciprocal actions from Israel to promote this vision, including an end to settlement activity. Above all, he called for an end to the destructive violence and terror that has so damaged the hopes of a generation of Palestinians and Israelis.
Over the past year, the US has worked with Israelis and Palestinians, friends in the region, our Quartet partners, and others to make this vision a reality. Together, we developed a roadmap of reciprocal and mutually-reinforcing obligations to guide us toward the two-state vision. Palestinians took important first steps to reform their institutions and introduce a credible leadership that is committed to peace.
Last month, in Sharm al Sheikh and Aqaba, we took another important step forward. Under the active leadership of President Bush, a new, hopeful dynamic between Israelis and Palestinians emerged, as the two parties undertook important commitments to each other and Arab parties made equally important commitments to support the peacemaking process. The regional scope of this effort is particularly important. The president called for a new, committed regional approach that would require all the states of the region to shake off old complacencies about the conflict. Urging the region to take advantage of the opportunities created by the fall of Saddam's tyrannical regime, the president hailed the appointment of a new Palestinian prime minister committed to peace, and the emergence of Palestinian officials committed to serious political and economic reform.
In Aqaba, at an event hosted by Jordan's King Abdullah, President Bush brought Prime Minister Sharon and Prime Minister Abbas together for a three-way meeting that was candid, frank, and remarkably free of the rancor and rhetoric that has too often characterized such encounters. Both sides made very clear commitments to the president's vision, and most importantly, acknowledged their own responsibilities and obligations to achieve it.
There is a key theme, too often missing in the past, that has characterized President Bush's diplomatic efforts from the outset: accountability and performance. The president has made clear that all sides have obligations to take steps for peace, the United States included, and that each side must accept those obligations, and be accountable for them. In short, they must perform. We have put a US coordinating and monitoring mission on the ground to monitor the way Israelis and Palestinians fulfill their responsibilities and meet their commitments. Our embassy in Tel Aviv and Consulate General in Jerusalem will work with Israelis and Palestinians on next steps in the process of redeployment and security, as well as on the other obligations contained in the roadmap.
The Palestinian-Israeli redeployment agreements in Gaza and Bethlehem are the first fruits of this process. It is extremely important that we consolidate this progress. It will take an extraordinary effort from both sides, and the United States will be there to assist at every step. We have to be realistic about how hard this will be, and humble in the face of past setbacks. There are no easy answers or magic formulas. But it is clear that ordinary Israelis and Palestinians are weary of conflict, and are willing to make sacrifices to achieve peace and the prospect of normal lives for their children. With active US engagement, the parties can turn a new page in their relations and make a reality of President Bush's powerful vision.-Published 17/07/03©bitterlemons.org
William J. (Bill) Burns, currently US assistant secretary of state for near east affairs, has been actively involved in the Arab-Israel conflict for the past 20 years.
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