Just over one year ago, the United States offered Israel a generous package of incentives in a last ditch attempt to persuade the Netanyahu government to extend its 10-month settlement moratorium by an additional three months--an offer it obstinately declined. This seemingly minor episode is just one link in the chain of events that has led the Palestinians to the doorstep of the United Nations in a bid to alter the dynamics of their conflict with Israel.
At the time, the Palestinian leadership threatened that if Israel did not give up its unmitigated settlement construction and return to the negotiation table in good faith, they would be compelled to play one of the other cards up their sleeve.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, proving himself an incapable statesman despite his claims, called the Palestinians' bluff and forced them to put down on the table the only practicable card they were actually holding: going to the UN. It was an idea whose implications, in actuality, had not been given much forethought, along with the inevitability of international involvement to dissuade Palestinians from altering the status-quo and making things uncomfortable for everybody.
This impulse was only made worse when the Israelis, acting in characteristic fashion, overreacted. The Palestinians found it irresistible to watch the Israelis squirm, and the ball was permitted to keep rolling down the hill until the Palestinian leadership was no longer able to stop it.
It was at this point that the Americans, deeming the Palestinians to be serious, began to get worried. President Barack Obama had already capitulated to Netanyahu once before, after witnessing the Israeli leader flex his political muscles in Washington and showcase that Israel could do what the American president could not: cross the partisan divide. Congress once again pledged its allegiance to Israel and threatened the Palestinians with an end to US aid if they executed their plans.
Obama knew that if the Palestinians went to the United Nations then he would be forced to take Israel's side, contradicting his own policies and making his administration look more foolish and weak than before. This is something that he cannot abide.
Both Israel and America went on the diplomatic offensive, making appeals, bribes and threats to the members of the international community in a mad scramble to convince the Palestinians that they did not have as many friends as they thought they had.
The critical arena for this popularity contest is inevitably the European Union. If Israel and the US are able to convince Europe's major players to stand by their side, they believe they can claim the "moral majority", and even if the Palestinians obtain a real majority in the UN, not much will change.
On the other hand, if the Palestinians are able to get the European Union to recognize Palestinian statehood at the UN, then Israel would be backed into a corner with the US as the sole protector of the apartheid state.
The Europeans remain deeply divided over the issue. Unable to come to an internal consensus and reluctant to choose between the two sides, Europe has gone on an offensive of its own, trying to convince Palestinians to end what they see as a foolish collision course at the UN, and return to the negotiations table.
The Quartet, of which the EU and the US are a part, seems more interested in doing whatever it takes to maintain the unsustainable status quo than taking creative steps to break the deadlock to achieve a peaceful solution.
Yet, if Netanyahu thought that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas had "climbed a tall tree" over the settlements and couldn't get down, Abbas was on top of the Empire State building with this one. With no new ideas, a host of domestic problems, and popular turmoil engulfing the region, Abbas has looked around and realized that he cannot climb back down and survive.
It is clear that no matter how much international pressure the Palestine Liberation Organization receives, its leaders cannot retreat and change course now. The only possibility is that they may lessen the blow by not forcing the United States' hand in the Security Council. This Friday, President Abbas is scheduled to address his public--days before heading to New York. We will see what he has in mind.-
Published 12/9/2011 © bitterlemons.org
